Why some economists fear changes to mortgage rules

Today’s top stories from Report on Business :

Ottawa urged not to tamper with mortgage rules

Peter Aceto, the head of ING Direct Canada, the country’s sixth-largest mortgage lender, is warning Ottawa not to pull back too quickly on mortgage rules, lest that causes the very thing everyone wants to avoid – a swooning housing market. While Ottawa should increase scrutiny of the percolating Canadian real estate market, acting too quickly to impose blanket new rules on mortgages could have the unintended consequences of toppling the market, he said.

“High level, one-stroke fixes are too simple, and can have a very large impact,” Mr. Aceto said. “I worry about government-based tightening of the mortgage rules creating a much worse reaction – too fast of a cooling, which is not really good for anyone.”

He stopped short of saying Canada is in a housing bubble. Still, the market “is hot and we are seeing some irrational behaviour” such as people engaging in bidding wars and waiving all conditions in buying a new house, he said.

Scotia Capital economists Derek Holt and Karen Cordes also warned in a research note that a sharp reversal by Ottawa could pop what it believes is a price bubble.

“You can’t go from 100 km/h to zero in a nanosecond without suffering harsh consequences,” they wrote. “Newton’s third law is the best caution that can be served up with respect to abruptly altering Canadian mortgage rules as per some of the whisper talk leading up to the March 4th federal budget after the currently government sharply liberalized the mortgage market in early 2007.”

Read

Don’t tighten mortgage rules, Ottawa told

Home prices on course to hit record highs in 2010

The making of a housing bubble

Audio slideshow: The tale of Canada’s hot housing market

CREA says it was close to MLS deal

The Canadian Estate Association believed it was on the cusp of a settlement with the Competition Bureau over access to its Multiple Listing Service as recently as last week, its president said today as he expressed “disappointment” with the agency’s decision to abruptly end discussions and escalate the case to Canada’s Competition Tribunal. “We are surprised and disappointed,” said president Dale Ripplinger. “We listened to their concerns and were willing to clarify our rules. For the most part the conversation was quite amicable – I thought we were making progress and weren’t that far apart.”

The bureau has asked the federal Competition Tribunal to strike down a series of rules CREA adopted in 2007 that tightened the MLS listing requirements. The rules state that an agent must handle all aspects of a transaction using the system, from the initial listing through to acceptance of offers. Read the story

EU members said ready to back Greece

Reports that EU governments have tentatively agreed to support Greece buoyed investors’ hopes and perked up the euro today. The Reuters news agency said other EU members agreed in principle to back up Greece, which has been buried by a debt crisis that has rippled through financial markets. The Wall Street Journal, meanwhile, said Germany and other EU governments were considering a plan to offer loan guarantees to not only Greece, but to other embattled countries in the 16-member euro zone. Germany would lead the effort. Several euro zone members, including Spain and Portugal, have been weighed down by debt troubles. European leaders meet in Brussels Thursday to discuss the economy. The issues related to Greece, in particular, and other countries such as Spain and Portugal, have weighed on the euro and knocked stock markets over fears of sovereign credit default and contagion.

Read

EU help on way for Greece

Greece seeks pension, wage reform

Traders, hedge funds bet big against euro

Europe could face years-long debt grind

Toyota recalls Prius


Toyota Motor Corp. TM-N
today launched a recall of 437,000 2010 Prius, Sai, Prius PHV and Lexus HS250h hybrids over brake problems, adding to the millions of popular vehicles recalled over the past two weeks because of sticky gas pedals. Today’s recall includes 223,000 in Japan, 155,000 in North American and 53,000 in Europe, and brings Toyota’s total global recalls to 8.5 million. Toyota’s sterling reputation has taken a knock over the past few weeks, and president Akio Toyoda told reporters today that “we will face up to the facts and correct the problem, putting customers’ safety and convenience first.”

Japan’s transport minister, who met with Mr. Toyoda, told reporters the company moved too slowly on the recall. “The consideration for customers was lacking in Toyota,” he said. “We hope this never happens again.” Read the story

Chavez decrees energy emergency

Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez has decreed an energy emergency, forcing businesses and consumers to cut back on electricity or face sanctions and sharply higher prices. Water levels behind the Guri Dam, the source of most of the country’s electricity, have fallen dramatically, and the country has already rationed electricity and water. There have also been rolling blackouts. “This is the worst summer I’ve seen in my life,” Mr. Chavez said as he signed the decree yesterday. “Everything is dry.” Read the story

Agrium profit slumps


Agrium Inc. AGU-T
this morning reported a plunge in fourth-quarter profits, but said demand for potash showed “significant signs of recovery” at the beginning of this year. The agricultural giant said profit in the quarter fell to $30-million or 19 cents a share from $124-million or 79 cents a year earlier. Agrium also noted the latest results included a $35-million hit on gas and other hedge positions and $34-million in expenses related to stock-based compensation. Most importantly, Agrium said the fourth quarter marked the beginning stage of a recovery in demand for fertilizer ingredients.

“Analysts report that there is considerable pent-up demand in the potash market as importers have been waiting for a Chinese potash contract to be agreed upon,” Agrium said in a statement. “North American purchases for spring applications increased in late December, and demand continued early in 2010. In addition, Brazilian potash inventories are reportedly tight and import demand is expected to rebound. India imported large volumes of potash in late 2009 but there is uncertainty on the timing of new 2010 purchases due to changes in global potash prices.”

Agrium did not disclose the potash price struck in a deal announced yesterday by Canpotex, the marketing arm for Agrium, Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan and Mosaic Co., to sell 350,000 tonnes to China’s Sinofert. Read the story

Related: Potash deal clouded by secrecy

Molson says demand sluggish


Molson Coors Brewing Co. TAP-N
says consumer demand is still sluggish, though its fourth-quarter profit doubled on tax gains. The brewer today posted a profit of $222.1-million (U.S.) or $1.19 a share, up from $93.7-million or 51 cents a year earlier. “It’s important to point out that we grew or held our net pricing and market share in both the U.S. and Canada,” chief executive officer Peter Swinburn said in a statement. “Our Canada share performance represented a significant trend improvement from previous quarters.” Read the story

From today’s Report on Business

MLS challenge could change the way houses are sold

Bay Street v. Wall Street: Safer, and better pay

China builds stakes in Canadian miners

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