To start off the 2010 forecast, the economy will be discussed. Here are a few possible trends that include the stock market.

2010 Economic Trends and Predictions

• Gold will rocket up to 1,500 or 2,000 per ounce, and then fall below 800
• Oil will inch forward toward 100 dollars per barrel trading up marginally
• The market will have a minor tumble again

The price of gold seems to be heading towards a manic buying climax. The short term could see prices rocket further, and then fall back down when buyers flee. This may especially be true if the US can strengthen its dollar.

The price of oil should recover with the economy. As consumer confidence returns slightly, individuals and families will be more apt to taking vacations and traveling. More purchasing requires more petroleum for the oil based products, and the spin-off transporting industry also requires fuel.

As of November 29th 2009, the stock market is already showing signs of a minor pullback. Over the previous few months the market has added 50 percent from the bottom of the price trough, but still is 25 percent or so from previous highs. Such a quick recovery is likely to see jittery trading as 2010 arrives.

Following a consolidation, possibly in the early part of 2010, the market may trade sideways to slightly bullish for a while. Neutral options trading spreads could be one method to utilize this volatile market trend.

Other Wild Predictions for 2010

Here is a sampling of the more off-beat predictions for the coming year.

• The complete collapse of the stock market

This possibility always lingers in the shadows. Stock prices trade far above their book value levels and at massive multipliers to cash and assets. One day, investors will realize that it is only their perception holding this investment structure up. If they quit believing, it will cease to exist. Although this is not an economic trend liable to happen any time soon, it is a possibility.

• The economy reverts to the barter system

Again, money only has value because the government says it does and makes any disagreement punishable by law. But what would happen if the average person no longer wanted to be paid in paper turned out my mints and instead wanted actual produce that was of immediate value to them? What if people started to question what backs the value of currency other than a governmental promise?

Again, this will probably not be anytime soon but it is still something to consider. At some point the Roman soldier wanted to quit being paid in salt.

• Google will ship Crome OS

This one will likely happen. What operating system wars will take place once Google starts selling its own version? That will be one interesting battle for 2010 most people want to see.

Final Forecast Thoughts for 2010

Although most fully expect to see the world intact next year, the year 2010 will no doubt be full of surprises that even the stock market forecasts, projections, estimates, and economic trend analysts didn’t see coming.

Sources

Beata Caranci, “TD Economics: Long Term Economic Forecast”, 16 June 2009, TD Bank Financial Group.

“Economy Forecast 2010”, August 2009, The Conference Board of Canada.